Kakapo
Safe Country, Unsafe City
Contrarian

Safe Country, Unsafe City

Country-level reputations hide the one place that breaks the pattern. Baltimore sits 26 points below the US average, Athens is the weakest link in famously safe Greece, and even Japan — the safest country we score — has an exception. These are the outliers you'd never expect.

Key findings — free to cite

The United States averages a solid 82.6/100 across the cities we score — but Baltimore sits at just 57, a 26-point drop and the widest "safe country, one unsafe city" gap in our data.

  • The pattern repeats in places you would never suspect: Athens is the weakest link in famously safe Greece (76 vs an 87.3 national average), and Marseille sits 11 points below reassuring France.
  • Even the safest country on Earth has an exception. Japan averages an extraordinary 93.7, yet its softest scored city, Kochi at 80, still lands below the national line — a reminder that "safe country" is never "safe everywhere."
  • The lesson cuts against the usual advice. A country-level reputation — "Spain is safe," "Italy is safe" — hides real variation: Cartagena, Naples and Brussels each break their nation's otherwise-strong average.
  • Emerging-market capitals show the same effect at larger scale: Manila, Delhi, Mexico City and Guayaquil each score far below countries that, on average, clear our safe threshold.
  • Every figure is a live Kakapo score. We compared each city only to its own country's average, so the gap measures a local exception, not a global ranking.

The country is safe. The city is the exception.

Travel advice runs on country labels. "Japan is safe." "France is safe." "The US is fine." Those labels are mostly true — and they quietly flatten the one place inside each country that doesn't fit. We took every country with at least four scored cities, worked out that country's own average city safety score, and then looked for the cities sitting furthest below their national baseline. To keep the contrast honest we only kept countries whose average is genuinely high (72 or above), so each row below is a real outlier: a safe country with one city that breaks the pattern.

CityCountryCity scoreCountry avgGap below
Baltimore, United StatesUnited States5782.6−25.6
New Orleans, United StatesUnited States5782.6−25.6
Detroit, United StatesUnited States5882.6−24.6
Memphis, United StatesUnited States6082.6−22.6
Manila, PhilippinesPhilippines5876.9−18.9
Delhi, IndiaIndia5875.1−17.1
Tijuana, MexicoMexico5773.4−16.4
Guayaquil, EcuadorEcuador5773.0−16.0
Cartagena, SpainSpain6984.0−15.0
Mexico City, MexicoMexico5973.4−14.4
Kochi, JapanJapan8093.7−13.7
Naples, ItalyItaly6982.6−13.6
Athens, GreeceGreece7687.3−11.3
Marseille, FranceFrance7384.0−11.0
Brussels, BelgiumBelgium7686.2−10.2
How to read the gap: it's the number of points the city scores below its own country's average — not below a global mean. A big gap means the surrounding country is safe and this city is the local exception, which is exactly the case a country-level reputation hides.

Why the outliers cluster where they do

Two different stories produce the same shape. In high-scoring rich countries — the US, Japan, Italy, Greece, France, Belgium, Spain — the outlier is usually a single city carrying concentrated, well-documented crime or unrest against an otherwise calm national backdrop: Baltimore, Naples, Marseille, Athens. In middle-scoring countries that still clear our safe bar, the outlier tends to be the largest metropolis or a border hub — Mexico City, Tijuana, Manila, Delhi, Guayaquil — where scale and inequality pull one place well under the national line. Either way, the traveller's mistake is the same: trusting the country label and skipping the city.

What to actually do about it

Read the city, not the country. If your trip runs through one of these outliers, the fact that the surrounding country is safe tells you very little about the specific streets you'll be on. Check the city's own score and its neighbourhood breakdown before you book the central-but-cheap hotel, plan arrivals in daylight, and treat the national reputation as background, not guidance. None of these cities is "off-limits" — several are major, rewarding destinations. They just deserve the attention their country's good name tends to talk you out of.

How we measured it

We took one row per city (the largest-population entry, excluding New York's boroughs) with a Kakapo overall safety score. For every country with at least four scored cities we computed the mean of those city scores, kept only countries averaging 72 or higher, then ranked each country's cities by how far they fall below that average. We surfaced the largest, most recognisable exceptions and dropped a handful of ambiguous same-name micro-towns and one data-quality outlier. Full weighting is at https://kakapo.travel/about/methodology. Scores are comparative model estimates, not law-enforcement statistics.

Cite this study

Free to cite in journalism, research or content — all we ask is a link back. Copy the attribution below:

Ready-to-use citation
Kakapo Editorial Team (2026). Safe Country, Unsafe City: The Outliers You'd Never Expect. Kakapo. https://kakapo.travel/blog/safe-country-unsafe-city-2026

Writing a destination, city-safety or data story? We give journalists custom data pulls at no cost — the full outlier table, any single country's city-by-city breakdown, or the reverse cut (the safe city in an otherwise-risky country). Email [email protected] and we usually reply the same day.

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Kakapo publishes real safety scores for every destination, drawing on national travel advisories, local crime data, healthcare infrastructure, and night-safety measures. Kakapo Studies is our research imprint — independent editorial, no advertiser influence on scores. Contact: [email protected].